4K: 2B OR NOT 2B?

Is 4K resolution the next step in the development of broadcasting technology? This is an essential question for both the major TV manufacturers as well as connoisseurs of high picture quality and other enthusiasts.

In contrast to the history surrounding the introduction of HD and Full HD, this time the experts’ opinions are divided. Some predict that the format will achieve unprecedented success in the market while others say that it is more of a fad than a substantial technological leap forward.

We tried to look at the question regarding numbers and figure out whether the 4K format should be or not to be.

Part 1: 4K Devices Market

4K TVs

Of all the devices that support the ultra-high resolution, undoubtedly 4K TVs will attract the greatest interest. According to forecasts by the analytical center OVUM, the number of connected UHD TVs in the world by 2020 will grow to 544 million, which is more than 10 times the level of 2015 and the average annual growth rate will be 73.8%.

According to research by IHS and Strategy Analytics, by 2019 4K devices will account for almost 100% of the supply of large screen TVs (50 inches or more). After that, the format will begin to occupy a niche in the market for devices with increasingly smaller screen sizes.

By 2020, about 23% of households around the world will have UHD TVs, and in the most developed market in North America, this figure will reach 45%. Western Europe will take second place, and the MEA region will come in last.

If we look at countries individually, then the leader regarding the adoption 4K TVs is Japan.

Japanese operators have started the broadcast of 4K TV by satellite, cable, and over IP networks. Most of the country’s manufacturing sector is also transitioning to ultra-high definition screens. According to research conducted by the Mitsubishi Research Institute, in 2016 TVs that support UHD were already in 6% of households. According to forecasts, by 2020 their share will reach 50% of the country’s TV market, which is much faster than the rate of adoption in North America and Europe.

China and South Korea will be the leading producers of 4K TVs since the largest companies manufacturing ultra-high resolution screens are located in these countries. At the same time, it is worth noting that Chinese production will be mainly aimed at the domestic market. By contrast, Korean factories for the most part plan to manufacture electronics for export.

4K Set-Top Boxes

Set-top boxes will also occupy a significant market share: the sales volume of UHD STB will grow by an average of 10 million units per year, and by 2020 annual production of these devices will exceed 50 million units. This will account for almost a quarter of the number of all purchased 4K devices.
According to forecasts by OVUM, by 2020 more than 225 million households around the world will be using 4K set-top boxes. The market leaders will be the most technologically advanced regions: over half of all users (80 million) will be residents of North America. Second place will be shared by Europe and Asia since they will have approximately the same number of users (65 million people). Analysts at OVUM predict that in the next 3 years the size of the market for 4K set-top boxes will be more than quadruple.